Let's have turkey!
Every day for a thousand days, the farmer feeds a turkey. At the start of all of this, the turkey is unsure of his environment. As the farmer starts feeding him, he sees the pattern: this farmer guys has his best interest at heart! He provides a shelter for him. He gives him food. Takes care of him when he is sick. Every day, the turkey's confidence in this belief grows - corroborating evidence, he says! Until day one thousand and one, Thanksgiving.
The above example was lifted from a book a friend recommended to me that I am currently reading: The Black Swan. It is also an example that I have used most of my life in a different form to show why I do not believe in inductive reasoning. Low probability events with high impact are ignored by humans - we are not really wired for it, and yet those types of events are what make our world what it is. We live in denial.
People make predictions based on the past, thinking that each new piece of corroborating evidence makes their predictions more valid, and yet that is provably false. If A then B. Not B. Therefore Not A. "All swans are white" and all swans you ever see are white, seeing more white swans does nothing to prove that all swans are white. The correct version of this sentence, based on the stated logic is:
If Swan, then White.
Not White.
Therefore not Swan.
So, any non-white object that you see would be proof that there are no black swans, even though black swans do exist. A red car therefore proves all swans are white. This is the Black Swan theory. Induction and corroboration fail in the real world. It is events on the edge, events that can not be predicted based on the past that wreck the models we have. Just like day one thousand and one for the turkey - he will have no way of knowing he future or the real reason for events in his life up to that day. But someone with a different vantage point might... like The Farmer.
The Edward
5 comments:
Deep philosophical thinking must be in the air. I have two posts about "free choice". Of course, I'm not as learned or well read (or CD listened) as you are, but my thinker goes on a thunk now and then.
What if all swans were pink?
The philosophy is great but where's the witty twist? The last sentence that makes you go, 'ah yes, a pure Edward moment'....
I'm guessing that I was too obscure in my twist this time - maybe my cold is affecting my wittiness.
Now that you know there is a twist, do you see it? I'll wait and post the answer tomorrow, when I also have another blog to post which is waiting in the wings: True American.
Pink swans, eh? Is that the same thing as a flamingo? The Black Swan theory sadly doesn't address swans of different colors, or ethnic diversities as they say these days. Maybe the Horse of a Different Color Syndrome can!
Sorry, I missed the midnight cutoff!
The twist, from my point of view:
Turkey was used in the story to show that a long stretch of time with no major events can suddenly be punctuated with a very large event that can not be predicted by the past. "Let's have turkey!" was the title. This implies I am calling for a large event, something possibly world changing, just like Thanksgiving is to the well-fed turkey.
Then I ended the blog with "The Farmer" as the person who knows that there is a big event coming for the turkey. He has information outside of the turkey-system - a different perspective if you will. The next two words after The Farmer are The Edward, with the same number of letters and the same number capitalization.
The implication of all of it, or the twist, was that I am saying that there is a large even coming down the pike, and that I can see it from my vantage point, since I live outside of the system.
I have written all of my blog posts with multiple levels, each for its own reason. Capitalization, word order and usage, punctuation, etc, all play into the jokes! Most are subtle. Many are not - and the ones that are not are to hide the subtle ones. Ask yourself, do I ever say "Pussy" in real life? Yet I use pussy throughout the blogs. Why? Indeed!
Sorry, I am tired right now - still a bit under the weather, so I am probably saying too much... shattering illusions, showing the man behind the curtain. Possibly spoiling the blog forever, since it will no longer serves its real purpose. :(
Or have I? Or is it? Is there a purpose other than entertaining?...
I hope you enjoy reading it, and get something out of every post! But remember, nothing is as it seems. Nothing.
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